根据市场专家Off-Highway Research的数据，2020年全球工程机械的销量远高于预期，预计自2021年开始将高于新冠肺炎疫情之前的销量。

2021年中国市场将继续保持缓慢增长，全球其他国家的销量开始回升（通常为5-10％），全球工程机械的销量有可能在2021年达到历史新高。

Off-Highway Research董事总经理克里斯·斯莱特（Chris Sleight）表示：“出现如此大的市场弹性，问题不仅在于对设备的需求量，也在于制造商是否能够满足需求。根据以往的经验，当全球销量达到一百万台以上时，就会出现关键零部件供应短缺的情况。”

在新冠肺炎疫情之前，工程机械市场预计将自2020年开始出现周期性下跌。总体下降幅度预计约为5％。

2020年3月，随着全球疫情的发展和各国的封禁措施，预计全球全年设备销量将下降20-40％。

2021年，市场对日立等OEM制造商的需求较为强劲。

但是，根据Off-Highway Research的数据，2020年全球销量几乎没有变化。实际上，疫情时期的市场表现好于疫情爆发之前的预期。

这位顾问表示，影响市场表现的最重要因素是中国的巨额刺激支出，使市场从2019年的强劲水平进一步增长了30％。

此外，世界其他地区的经济衰退并没有在疫情封锁开始时所担心的那么严重。大多数市场并没有像预期的下降30％或更多，而是下降了10-20％，有些市场甚至增长了。 2020年，不包括中国在内的全球市场总体下降幅度为12％。

现在，对2021年及以后的预测通常要比疫情爆发之前的预期要好。斯莱特补充说：“预计2021年将出现设备供应紧张和机器交货时间长的情况。Off-Highway Research认为，这些因素（而不是需求方面的障碍）是对其进行预测和行业达到其销售潜力的主要挑战。”

原文如下：

2021 could see ‘record high’ sales of construction equipment

By Andy Brown

Global construction equipment sales in 2020 performed much better than anticipated and the forecast for 2021 and beyond is now better than expected prior to the Covid-19 outbreak, according to market specialists Off-Highway Research.

Continued modest growth in China in 2021, combined with a bounce back in sales in other countries around the world – generally of 5-10% – have the potential to take global construction equipment sales to a record high in 2021.

Off-Highway Research managing director, Chris Sleight said, “The buoyancy is such that the question is not so much whether there will be demand for equipment, but whether manufacturers will be able to meet it. History has shown that a global volume of one million units or more can equate to supply shortages in critical components."

Prior to the Covid-19 pandemic, the cyclical construction equipment market was expected to fall in 2020 and beyond. The overall decline was expected to be around 5%.

In March 2020, as the pandemic took hold and national lockdowns came into force around the world, it was feared that global markets would crash. Annual declines of 20-40% were anticipated in worldwide equipment sales.

2021 could see strong demand for OEMs, such as Hitachi

However, according to Off-Highway Research, 2020 saw little change in global sales. In fact, the market performed better in the pandemic than it was expected to prior to the Covid outbreak.

The consultant said the most important factor in this performance was the huge stimulus spending in China, which saw the market rise from already buoyant levels of 2019 by a further 30%.

In addition, the downturn in other parts of the world was not as severe as was feared when the lockdowns started. Instead of the anticipated falls of 30% or more, most markets declined by 10-20% and some even grew. The overall fall for the world, excluding China, was 12% in 2020.

The forecast for 2021 and beyond is now generally better than was expected prior to the Covid outbreak. Sleight added that, “It is therefore expected that 2021 will be characterised by equipment supply constraints and long lead times for machines. Off-Highway Research believes these factors are the major challenge to its forecasts and the industry reaching its sales potential, rather than any demand-side impediments."

Source: https://www.khl.com/news/2021-could-see-record-high-sales-of-construction-equipment/8011235.article

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